(Editor’s note: This is the first of two analyses by Jose Garcia on primary results. Today he focuses on the results and Rio Arriba County and potential effects on the state legislature. Next week he will analyze the statewide results.)
This primary season four moderate Democrats from the Hispanic North (El Norte) challenged legislative incumbents associated with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Aside from a legislative seat in Socorro and another in Albuquerque, only in El Norte have moderates challenged progressive legislative power this year.
Last night only one of the four challengers, Joseph Sanchez, was successful, defeating Incumbent Roger Montoya. Sanchez is bright, well educated, and articulate, and he states his case convincingly. He appears to have a strong political future in the coming years. While the other moderate candidates were strong, their opponents were also strong and well-funded: beating an incumbent is hard work, requiring a consistent and compelling case for change. It doesn’t happen overnight.
It is not surprising that it was in El Norte that major challenges to progressive rule were launched. The vast majority of norteño Democratic households—indeed, most Hispanic citizens throughout the state–have always been conservative on social issues. But progressives have recruited candidates who largely agree with the liberal, secular, values seen generically in large, prosperous urban areas of the country. Since progressives receive most of their funding from out-of-state, their legislative priorities tend to reflect the national progressive agenda–gender flexibility, aggressive action on climate change, police reform, gun control, and the like—as much as the local issues and. agenda.
Local candidates try to localize their campaigns with local issues, but in the end, they tend to support the national agendas of the progressive movement.
For Hispanics, especially, there is a disconnect between their own values and those expressed by national progressive figures such as Vice President Kamala Harris or U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, and by the promoters of progressive politics within the state. This seems to me a non-sustainable situation, and a problem, if not fixed, that will persist.
A good deal of the drama in the legislature is driven by this growing rift between progressives and the more moderate Hispanic base. Moderates will tell you they are not against many progressive issues; it is a matter of priority-setting. Progressives will tell you they can walk and chew gum at the same time. In truth, the incompatibility of values among Democrats has led to distrust between the two camps. Complicating matters, the Republican Party, normally quick to pick up on rifts among Democrats and capitalize on mistakes, has been plagued for years by severe internal conflict, leading it to near-paralysis. So, this appears to be a game among Democrats.
But New Mexico has seen this movie—this disconnect–before. In the 1970s the Southeast oil patch was solidly Democratic. It was also solidly conservative. Progressives from the North controlled the legislature, and moderate-conservative Democrats in the oil patch felt their bills weren’t taken seriously. The oil patch response? In 1979 a total of 11 conservative Democrats, mostly from the Southeast, joined in with all 26 Republicans in the House to elect Southeast Democrat Gene Samberson as Speaker of the House. He was Speaker for two terms until a reconciliation took place.
But over the next two decades, voters in the oil patch changed their party affiliation to solidly Republican, where they are today. In 1988 Senator Manny Aragon, a Democrat, became President Pro Tem of the Senate in a coalition of 5 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Even more dramatic, in the late 1930s and early 1940s New Mexico Hispanics shifted party registration from solid Republican to solid Democrat, one of the few mass migrations of an ethnic group from one party to another in American history. Not convinced this could happen again? The biggest recent trend in national voting has been increased support among Hispanics for Republican candidates at all levels. Uvalde County, for example, heavily Hispanic, voted for Trump in 2020, largely for the same reasons there is dissatisfaction among Hispanics in New Mexico today. Democrats in New Mexico ignore their Hispanic voters at their own peril.
From the returns last night, it would appear that the balance of power in the state legislature is likely to remain pretty much intact. The tension between moderates and progressives will be reflected in the election of a new Speaker of the House. Brian Egolf, the current–progressive—Speaker, is not running for re-election, so the seat is open. Rep. Patricia Lundstrom, a moderate from Gallup, and Javier Martinez, a progressive from Albuquerque, are openly squaring off to replace Egolf as Speaker. Lundstrom has hinted she will not cross-party lines to become Speaker. But the temptations to form a governing, moderate, coalition, like the ones we’ve seen before, may be overwhelming.
This moment in New Mexico, after the pandemic, the Trump years, the mass shootings, and now the fires, appears to be fluid, as voters adjust to new realities. This makes it hard to predict what is going to happen, but it also means that the range of possibilities is much higher than normal. Politics is, after all, called the art of the possible. After drifting down to from 49th to 50th in most key areas of comparison with other states in areas such as education and unemployment over the past few decades, we would do well to explore some of these possibilities.
Dr. Garcia is a retired professor of politics at NMSU. He also served as Secretary of Higher Education from 2011-2015. Recently he lost a lot of pine trees on Holman Hill in Mora to the Calf Canyon fire.