Normally voters turn to TV talking-heads after an election to find out what happened. This year talking-heads had to turn to voters to find out what happened. A decisive proportion of voters ignored the Kool-Aid offers from the crazies, the polls, the “narratives,” that is, the lies, of political parties and campaign ads, and chose to look candidates in the eye. In most cases “candidate quality” and common sense won the day. After years of being egged on to vote on the darkest of fears, voters this year voted on a new, more open, set of fears: inflation, prescription drug prices, crime, undemocratic movidas, freedom of choice in reproductive matters, etc. Enough already with transgender and other identity politics, election lies, theories of racial superiority, and the yearning in some surprising quarters for an American Mussolini.
Unlike the rest of the country, there was nothing surprising about the outcome in New Mexico. Democrats maintained control of the governor’s office, the legislature, the courts, and all elected state offices. There were no shifts in the balances of power among partisan factions. The most interesting question–whether there would be a moderate challenge to the urban-based progressive faction in the Democratic Party–was settled quickly, last Saturday, when the Democratic caucus nominated progressive Javier Martinez to become Speaker of the House, without serious opposition. Progressives after four years in power, are still in charge of the Roundhouse. When will NM move from from 51st to 49th in education? When can we expect a credible mental health system for the state? Will progressives tighten legislature ethical rules and laws to cut down on the most corrupt practices in state government? In the next couple of years progressives will own a good piece of what happens here in government. Since most New Mexicans are not progressives, the leash they have may not be very long.
Here in El Norte Joseph Sanchez, a moderate from Alcalde, won election to HD 40, which includes part of the Rio Grande valley with the East Side of the mountains in Mora and San Miguel counties. He is likely to resist the excesses of the progressive agenda, and favor moderate policies.
The Republican Party in New Mexico is adrift without an anchor and rudderless; conditions it created for itself in the past few years, reacting, rather than acting, to events. As long as it remains out of touch with most New Mexicans, except on the East Side, it will have a difficult time being more than a minor nuisance in state government. This is not a good omen for government, which, like capitalism, runs best when competition is a strong motivator.
Republicans in New Mexico face two major challenges. First, like the rest of the country, voters this year were not persuaded by the national antics of a party catering to the steroid-driven emotions of an increasingly weird base. When a likeable Republican candidate for governor is forced not only to attack his opponent’s record but also to deny he represents what appears to be the emerging Republican agenda, it is going to be hard to close the deal with voters. Second, Republican Party leaders must prove they can put together a serious ground game during the election season, and that they understand what is on the minds of most New Mexicans enough to put together a reasonable case for giving them a chance to govern. Individual Republican elected officials are more than up to performing these tasks well, but as a group a lot of energy has been sapped.
Second terms for governors in New Mexico have not gone well since a second four-year term was permitted for the first time in 1992. Think of Big Bill and Susana. In both cases the details of governing—keeping morale high among state employees, putting broadband into small communities, staying in touch with the different regions of the state, reforming broken systems like state personnel or horse racing or regulation and licensing—all gave way during the second term to the temptations of national politics and to talking about problems through well-paid mouthpieces rather than going the extra mile to solve them. In this sense the 2022 elections remind us that politics, after all, is more about fixing problems than blaming others for them.
Dr. Garcia is a retired professor of politics at NMSU. He also served as Secretary of Higher Education from 2011-2015.