Heavy snows in December and early January could lead to above average runoff in Rio Arriba County.
The snow depth Jan. 13 at the National Resources Conservation Service measuring site at Hopewell between Tres Piedras and Tierra Amarilla was 52.5 inches.
Precipitation in the Rio Chama River Basin is 125 percent of average, while inflow into El Vado Reservoir is predicted to be 135 percent of average, according to the water supply forecast Jan. 1 from the Service. Water storage at El Vado Reservoir is currently 161 percent of average, while Abiquiu Reservoir is 167 percent of average.
The snowpack in the Rio Grande Basin, which includes the Chama River, is 170 percent of average, which is higher than last year, when it was 122 percent of average.
The forecast states that a weak “La Niña” seems to be in place and that could shift moisture patterns at anytime, leading to below average snowfall later in the season which could quickly lead to lower runoff forecasts. The forecast states it is still very early to make an accurate prediction of what this winter’s snows will bring in terms of runoff.