This fall’s weather is unseasonably warm so far. The summer and early fall have produced moisture for some, but overall it’s been a dry-weather pattern here in Española.
This was starkly evident recently when I drove out of town toward Velarde. We had had barely a drop of rain at my house, but out near Alcalde it had rained hard, creating rushing arroyos. Out near Chamita and Ojo Caliente, roads were flooded.
It’s been this way all summer, with hit-or-miss thunderstorms drenching some areas while others remain high and dry.
On a hunch, I called the National Weather Service and checked on rainfall totals here in Española. Sure enough, we are below normal. As of Sept. 25, we’ve had 4.69 inches of precipitation. Normal for this area is 6.89 inches by the end of August, so we’re well below normal.
Incidentally, normal for the entire year is 9.78 inches.
A 90-day forecast released Sept. 18 isn’t encouraging. It calls for near-normal or above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, according to the Service. It looks like we’re not going to catch up on precipitation for the remainder of the fall.
Further checking on the United States Geological Survey website revealed that stream flows in the Rio Grande and the Rio Chama (before the flow is interrupted by dams) are also below normal. Below the dams on the Rio Chama, the flows are above normal due to heavier releases of water from El Vado and Abiquiú.
Likewise, when the Rio Grande enters New Mexico from Colorado, its flows are less than half of normal. But at Otowi Bridge, south of Española, the flow is slightly above normal thanks to the inflow coming in from the Chama.
It appears they’re trying to fill up Elephant Butte Reservoir farther downstream, where releases are less than 10 percent of normal.
This past winter we had heavy snowfall in Northern New Mexico (just ask the folks in Chama) and the rivers were running high, but it sure looks like we’re headed into a dry winter.
Santa Fe rainfall is way down as well. The total at the Santa Fe Airport, where it’s measured, is nearly seven inches below normal. That’s a lot of water.
It’s almost October and the temperatures are still in the 80s. I was scouting in the mountains Sept. 24 for an upcoming elk hunt and it’s warm even up there. Elk hunting used to be a time when I’d start expecting snow, and my most successful hunts were done in the snow in October. Somehow this warm weather just doesn’t feel right.
I like to follow the weather because not too long ago, we were at its mercy. Just 200 years ago, imagine what it was like. When I was a young man in my 20s and 30s, 200 years seemed like forever, but as I pass 60 I realize it’s just three or four generations.
A dry fall and late winter, which we appear to be headed for, is not good. The trees and vegetation that go dormant will be stressed by the lack of moisture. If the winter stays dry, the vegetation will struggle to regrow in the spring and the fire season could be disastrous, as it’s been in dry years past.
We’ve had wet winters the last couple of years. During those times of abundance, we tend to forget what dry years are like. Right now, the reservoirs are storing a substantial amount of water. Their levels are way above what they were a few years ago.
Back then, there were sandbars exposed in the middle of Abiquiú Lake and the receding shoreline at Heron Lake revealed sunken boats. Now we’ve got water, but it will disappear quickly if we have a couple of dry years.
Strangely, no one seems to be paying this dry weather much attention. Perhaps that’s because earlier this summer, the television news was reporting rain in Albuquerque practically every day. Here in Española we were high and dry, but since Albuquerque is where we get all of our television news, perhaps it seemed like we were getting a lot of rain.
The weather is beyond our control and you deal with what you get, but I think we need to pay attention to it. Like it or not, we still dance to its rhythm.