Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham touted in a press release Jan. 2 a stat from United Van Lines showing the national company helped more people move into New Mexico last year than it helped leave the state.
“Individuals, families and businesses around the country are recognizing the potential New Mexico offers, especially with regards to jobs, lifestyle and retirement,” said Lujan Grisham in the press release. “We’re continuing to build up systems that attract and support continued growth and a thriving population. Welcome to New Mexico!”
I don’t blame her for touting the company figures, one of several sets of data released by national moving companies each year.
Because in truth, New Mexico’s population stats are grim if you’re someone who thinks a growing population signals a robust economy that provides opportunity for young people.
According to the U.S. Census, New Mexico lost population over the past three years. More people died than were born within the state, and there weren’t enough people moving in to fill that gap between local births and deaths.
The other salient factor when thinking about New Mexico’s population is that it’s aging.
A 2021 analysis by the program evaluation unit of New Mexico’s Legislative Finance Committee puts the problem succinctly:
“Between 2010 and 2019, New Mexico’s birth rate fell by 19 percent, and the under-18 population shrank by 8.3 percent. At the same time, the working-age population (18 to 64) declined 2 percent, and the over 65 population grew 38 percent.”
The implications, the LFC analysts wrote, are that “New Mexico is heading toward having more, older New Mexicans using relatively expensive public services (e.g. Medicaid and Medicare) and fewer, younger New Mexicans in school and working.”
With an eye on how New Mexico grapples with an aging population in the decades to come, we republished a series of stories by the Kaiser Family Foundation Health News and the New York Times about the high cost of — and potential financial ruin wrought by — long-term care.
The series described in detail how families are staring down financial ruin as the costs of care, whether in-home or in nursing or assisted living facilities, continues to escalate. From the first story in the series:
“The prospect of dying broke looms as an imminent threat for the boomer generation, which vastly expanded the middle class and looked hopefully toward a comfortable retirement on the backbone of 401(k)s and pensions.
Roughly 10,000 of them will turn 65 every day until 2030, expecting to live into their 80s and 90s as the price tag for long-term care explodes, outpacing inflation and reaching a half-trillion dollars a year, according to federal researchers.”