Published 10/23/08
In politics, and especially in Northern New Mexico, everything old is new again.
First the old — the year was 1997. The Third Congressional District in Northern New Mexico was safely Democratic and had been sending Congressman Bill Richardson to Washington, D.C. for more than a decade. But he got a job offer to be a United Nations ambassador and decided to step down.
A special election was called for the springtime, and the political parties scrambled to nominate candidates. The Democrats picked corporate regulator Eric Serna, of Española; the Republicans chose Los Alamos minister Bill Redmond; and the Greens, who had drawn 10 percent of the vote in the 1994 gubernatorial race, nominated health activist Carol Miller, of Ojo Sarco.
Serna was a controversial pick. He was overwhelmingly favored by the party insiders who put him on the ballot, and the Rio Arriba County Democratic Party rallied behind its native son. Serna said former County party chair and longtime boss Emilio Naranjo was out working for him, and rally photos show stalwarts such as Leroy Salazar and Theresa Martinez hitting the stump.
But a lot of rank-and-file Democrats across the District considered him an establishment figure who was being shoved down their throats. Ike DeVargas, of Servilleta, briefly threatened to run against him as an independent.
Serna said the attacks were “standard stuff” about being a longtime party insider, though he remembered one particular ad about taking a ride in a privately-rented airplane. At the time, Serna was serving on the state board that regulated corporations.
“There was this mail-out that the Republican Party sent out saying I was running my own airline,” Serna said. “It was so distorted it was slanderous, but you can’t do anything about it.”
The Sierra Club’s Rio Grande Chapter Vice Chair Norma McCallan said the Club reluctantly endorsed Serna that year, despite Miller’s solid environmental credentials.
“It was not necessarily an enthusiastic endorsement, because he did come with some baggage,” McCallan said. “But we didn’t think the Green Party had any chance at all, and he was a lot better than Redmond.”
Most people assumed, based on the District’s political make-up, that any Democrat was a shoo-in. On May 8, 1997, just five days before the election, the SUN’s lead story pronounced “Editors See Serna Victory.” Newspaper editors in eight counties across the third district opined that the outcome would be determined by party loyalty, old habits and the desire to pick an electable candidate, the SUN wrote.
It seemed like a done deal.
But Redmond knew better. He’d studied the voter turnout from every special election since 1954, and estimated that he’d need just 50,001 votes to win. There were more than 80,000 registered Republicans in the District, so he didn’t need to flip any Democrats. He just needed a good ground game that would insure turnout among conservatives.
Last week, he reminisced about the tipping point. The election was two weeks away, he said, and the National Republican Congressional Committee sent its director to New Mexico to basically shake Redmond’s hand, thank him for carrying the torch and tell him, “Better luck next time.”
“My staff met him at the airport with the poll from the previous night that showed I had a 10-point lead,” Redmond said. “This guy had an overnight bag packed, because he was going to fly out to D.C. the next day. He had to go down to Wal-Mart and buy underwear and socks. He called back to Washington, and he spoke with (former House speaker Newt) Gingrich and congressman John Linder, who was the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee at the time. They said, ‘We got a sleeper here!’”
Indeed they did. Only about a third of registered voters turned out, and Redmond won with 43 percent of the vote to Serna’s 40 percent. Miller pulled in 17 percent and was widely dubbed a spoiler by Democrats — though both Miller and Redmond say it’s impossible to know what might have happened if she hadn’t run.
The pertinent question is, could it happen again this year? This time the Third District congressional race has a few elements of dejá vu. Northern New Mexico’s long-serving representative Tom Udall (D-NM) has again created a rare vacancy by moving on to bigger things. This time it’s a Senate seat, if Udall can get past his bulldog of an opponent, Republican Rep. Steve Pearce.
Secondly, after a long hiatus from politics, Carol Miller is back on the ballot as an independent — and polls show her in second place with about 14 percent of the vote.
Ben Ray Lujan, the widely favored Democrat in the race, even holds a job similar to the one Serna held in 1997, a seat on the state body that regulates corporations.
What’s more relevant is that Lujan’s critics have branded him as a product of the establishment machine, pushed into power by his father and namesake, state House Speaker Ben Lujan. During this year’s preprimary process, some of Lujan’s opponents complained publicly that county Democratic chairs — the people who operate and maintain the machine — were clearly biased in his favor. And much of his fund raising has come in as large donations from lobbyists, state employees and business owners with interests in New Mexico.
Although Serna has since left public life — he resigned as state insurance superintendent in 2006 while under investigation for an alleged conflict of interest — it’s worth remembering that at one time he seemed like the heir to the throne. He had attended law school at Catholic University in Washington, D.C., and served as an administrative aide to former Sen. Joseph Montoya (D-NM). His talking points sounded strikingly similar to Lujan’s today — taking on big corporations, modernizing the Commission and making it more efficient and transparent. Being a native son didn’t hurt, either.
“I was fully supportive of Eric at the time,” former Rio Arriba Democratic Party chair David Chavez said. “Eric would probably still be in Congress if he had won.”
Why It Won’t Happen
Despite superficial similarities between the races of 1997 and 2008, there are also important differences. Foremost, this is not a special election.
“It’s very different to compare a special election to a general election,” Lujan’s campaign manager Carlos Trujillo said. “That race was the only race on the ballot.”
That meant low turnout, which Serna pointed to as the major factor in his upset. He said in 1997, the Republicans had a motivated base and a better voter-turnout plan.
“I had difficulty convincing people in this district, as I traveled, how important their vote was,” Serna said. “I would get the attitude, ‘Well, you have it made. I’m gonna vote, but you have it made.’ And it was very difficult to overcome that.”
Serna said the single-race ballot also made him a lone target for Republican attacks.
“I was the only elk out there in that big field, and there were a thousand rifles,” Serna said.
Both Serna and Trujillo drew a contrast between that year and the rapt attention and massive turnout expected for the presidential contest on this year’s ballot. (Not to mention the high-profile Senate race.)
“I don’t see it,” Serna said of a Lujan defeat. “Things are different. There’s a full-fledged campaign, high Democratic interest and a popular candidate running for president.”
The second major difference is that despite grumblings over Ben Ray Lujan’s inherited clout from his father, he trounced his opponents with 42 percent of the vote in a hotly contested six-way Democratic primary.
“Unlike ‘97, in which the party central committees chose their candidates,” Trujillo said. “There was a lot of disgruntled folks in ‘97, because they felt the process wasn’t fair.”
Serna said he advocated for having a primary, but it wasn’t legally possible. He got caught by a double-edged sword, criticized for following the very party rules that placed him on the ballot, he said.
“(Lujan) can be criticized for being the son of a speaker, and some of the same criticism I (received) being a party insider,” Serna said. “But the truth of the matter is, you win these on your own merits. He went through a process and he won.”
Following this year’s bitter primary, many Democrats have circled the wagons around Lujan. Former candidate Don Wiviott, who launched blistering attacks against Lujan right before the primary, recently hosted a fund-raiser on his behalf. And Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya, who also challenged Lujan in the primary, said he’s supporting his fellow Democrat with no hard feelings.
Therefore, Lujan could unite the Democratic factions that Serna divided: the true-blue party loyalists in the north, and the ideological progressives in places like Santa Fe and Taos.
McCallan said the Sierra Club’s endorsement of Lujan is based on his green-energy leadership on the state Public Regulation Commission, and is much more enthusiastic than its 1997 pick.
“Absolutely, no question,” she said.
Even Green Party Public Regulation Commission candidate Rick Lass, who was paid last spring to run the signature petition that got Miller on the ballot, said he decided to endorse Lujan after looking more closely at the Commission’s accomplishments and responsibilities.
“When it comes down to it, you only get one vote,” Lass said. “I think we need a strong Democrat in Congress to support (Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack) Obama’s programs.”
Of course, Lass’s endorsement is likely influenced by the fact that he’s running against the scandal-ridden Democrat Jerome Block Jr., whom Lujan and other party leaders have refused to endorse. If Lass is going to win, he needs to curry favor with as many Democrats as possible.
But Lass said overall, third parties have lost power over the last decade because Democrats have nominated more and more progressive candidates.
“It’s telling that Carol Miller was able to get 17 percent when she ran against Eric Serna, but when they nominated Tom Udall, she got 4 or 5 percent,” Lass said.
Udall won the seat back for the Democrats in 1998, when a regular election was held at the end of Richardson’s elected term.
Redmond said the deal is all but sealed for Lujan. If the race was winnable for a Republican, he would have run in the primary himself, Redmond said. Asked to name a scenario in which East or Miller could win, Redmond’s prediction was dire.
“There’d probably have to be a federal indictment of Ben Ray Lujan, and even then he might win,” Redmond said, laughing.
Nonetheless, Miller said she wouldn’t run if she didn’t think she could win.
“I really believe partisan politics have hurt us,” she said.
The Third District is slightly more independent than it was 10 years ago. In 1996, it was 60 percent Democratic, 28 percent Republican, and 12 percent something else — either no party or a third party. Now, the Democrats have dipped to 55 percent, the Republicans have remained at 28 percent, and “decline to state” or “other” voters comprise 16 percent of the electorate.
“I think people are tired of the same old thing,” Miller’s campaign treasurer Antonio Manzanares, of Los Ojos, said. “If we get enough votes she’ll be a winner, not a spoiler.”
Manzanares’ support for Miller is interesting. He ran for Rio Arriba County Magistrate Court judge in the 2006 Democratic primary (the one that Tommy Rodella won). He said he knows Miller from her days as executive director and consultant for La Clinica del Pueblo, in Tierra Amarilla. Manzanares was on the board there.
“Carol is knowledgeable about health care,” Manzanares said. “She’s written legislation, and I just think she’s the most qualified.”
Manzanares said he doesn’t know Ben Ray Lujan and can’t say much about him. But he hasn’t seen a groundswell of support for the Democrat in the northern part of the County, Manzanares said. Lujan is more of a default candidate, and Miller offers another choice, he said.
“Carol spoke on the radio up here, and we had people coming up to her saying, ‘I really agree with what you’re saying,’” Manzanares said.
Miller said she’s meeting independents and Republicans all over the District who are responding to her message, which often includes harsh criticism of single-party Democratic rule in New Mexico and what she calls the “Richardson/Lujan financial crisis.”
“I was at the Clovis Chamber of Commerce, and many people came up to me to shake my hand saying, ‘I’ve been a Republican my whole life, and I’ve only ever voted for Republicans until I met you,’” Miller said.
Still, many observers believe Miller will primarily draw support from left-leaning, progressive voters.
Miller’s Republican opponent Dan East said he’s not competing with her for votes. She may advocate smaller government and help for small businesses, but voters know he’s a business owner who understands those issues personally, East said.
“I don’t see her pulling from the Republican side,” East, a Rio Rancho contractor, said. “She’ll pull from the Democratic side, and she’ll also get people out to vote.”
Dixon resident Alva Morrison, who was actively involved in community health care discussions during the 2008 state legislative session, expressed similar reservations. Morrison said Miller seems like a great person and she brings a lot of health-care experience to the table.
“But as far as the practicality of backing her candidacy, it’s kind of troublesome to me personally,” Morrison said. “She doesn’t seem to have a chance of winning.”
Viability was also a factor for New Mexico’s Sierra Club chapter, which again chose Miller’s Democratic opponent. Rio Grande Chapter Chairwoman Susan Martin said the national Club directs members to look for both a strong environmental record and the opportunity to win.
“The political group and the executive committee felt that although Carol Miller certainly has good environmental credentials; she wasn’t considered a viable candidate in the North,” Martin said.
Miller said she believes she’s better off without the Sierra Club’s endorsement, given many Northerners’ perception of them. She argues that if people don’t vote for the most qualified candidate, there will never be real change.
“I’m in second place — there’s no split there,” Miller said.
Miller said she has worked in Washington on two presidential appointments — from Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. It would take years for New Mexico’s entire congressional delegation to accumulate as much experience in writing and moving legislation as she has, she said.
“If I’m not a viable candidate, what’s a viable candidate — being someone’s son?” Miller said. “What I think they really mean by viable is the money. I’ve had people tell me, ‘Talk to me when you’ve got a million dollars.’ Let’s be real — if I had a million dollars, I know so many projects that are starving for money. I am offended by the amount of money that’s going into the political system.”
In campaign-finance reports released last week, Lujan reported raising $1.1 million since his campaign began. East has raised $148,000. Miller had about $8,800 as of July, and she said she is focused on talking to voters, not fund raising.
In 1997, Serna outspent Redmond by more than two to one.